Despite the improvement, investors force be disappointed if third-quarter earnings merely meet forecasts. In the second quarter, nearly three-quarters of companies posted positive earnings surprises, whether from cost-cutting or careful management of their expectations (but rarely from growth, as few companies beat sales estimates). stock ticker valuations suggest buyers are betting on another round of positive surprises. The S&P 500 lately has traded near 20 era its forecast 2009 earnings. Its historical average is less than 15 era earnings.

With so much seemingly riding on surprises, consider a arithmetic clue that can help predict which companies will please Wall Street and which will disappoint. It’s not a sure thing, but it can bend the probabilities in an shareholder’s favor. It has to do with analyst disagreement.

stock tickers with analysts’ earnings forecasts that are broadly scattered tend to underperform the broad market, according to a study published in 2007 in the Journal of Finance and written by Anna Scherbina, a professor at the University of California, Davis. There are a couple of theories on why. The most convincing of them holds that companies with excellent news share all the details with anyone who’ll listen, and those with terrible news keep mum. The difference in information flow leads to agreement among analysts over companies that are performing well, and disagreement over ones that force be struggling.

Below I’ve attempted to apply the study finding to S&P 500 companies, focusing on the 211 of them that are expected to earn at smallest amount 50 cents a share in their current fiscal quarters, and whose earnings consensuses are based on at smallest amount five estimates. Statisticians use a rate called standard deviation to judge the degree of scattering within a group of results. For each of my 211 companies, I divided the standard deviation of the current-quarter earnings consensus by the consensus itself, and expressed the result as a percentage. These ranged from less than 1% to more than 46%. A lower percentage suggests more agreement among analysts, and according to the study, an increased likelihood of market-beating income over the next six months. A privileged percentage should be read as a warning sign — again, only one cut of evidence among many that investors should consider.

Below are listed the top 10 and bottom 10 companies from my comparison.

* lower = more analyst agreement

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“The last six months we’ve been trying to figure out which managers just hit a terrible patch last year and which managers have just gone terrible,” says Bold.

Spotting the difference linking a temporary lull in performance and a more serious setback is a tough task for investors like Bold. Even the industry’s best managers certainly have a down year or two when the stock tickers they own fall out of favor with the broad market. Many investors stab by these pros in the hopes they will regain their momentum. Though, not all managers can stage such a recovery. The industry is littered with top-tier funds that fell into the basement of their categories and stayed there — for years.

This week SmartMoney’s fund screen tries to handicap which offerings are really back on track. We started with a universe of 1,685 equity funds that had above-average 10-year track records. We then narrowed that group to 344 by looking for funds that were in the bottom 40% of their respective categories during the three-year time period. In addition, the funds had to beat the year-to-date performance of the S&P 500. Irrevocably, we favored funds with proven managers, ones that featured stock ticker portfolios poised for growth and we made sure each offering did well coming out of the last bear market. Below are 10 funds we reckon could be on the comeback trail.

Of course, there is no promise that any of the funds will regain its former glory. Indeed, some funds in the table below, like Dodge & Cox stock ticker (DODGX) and Oakmark Select (OAKLX), made this screen the last time around in December, but have yet to stage the comeback we anticipated. By using the criteria mentioned above, though, we are aiming to increase our chances of sticking by a potential winner instead of selling at the incorrect time. Two funds we previously wrote about that did stage comebacks are Al Frank (VALUX) and Wasatch Small Cap Growth (WAAEX). Both fell off the list this time due to excellent income.

Investors should be wary about focusing on past income. Three- and five-year income, for example, can easily be skewed by an up or down year. Last year’s downturn was so severe that it even impacted the trailing 10-year income of some funds. It may be more revealing to study individual 12-month spans. In his analysis, Bold treats 2008 nearly as an anomaly since he thinks excellent managers got shattered when hedge-fund-type outfits were forced to sell stock tickers.

“What we had last year was a liquidity problem,” says Bold, who places more emphasis on how funds did after the 2001-02 bear market. “What [sophisticated investors] wanted to sell was their CDOs [collateralized debt obligations] to meet margin calls. But they couldn’t, so they sold whatever was the most liquid. The best stock tickers had liquidity.”

Ultimately, says Bold, investors need to weigh a poor performance against any emotional attachment they may have to a fund and its manager.

“When you have a manager who has done a fantastic job for a long period of time you can give him the benefit of the skepticism for longer than a manager who has [a spotty track confirmation],” says Bold. “But ultimately you can’t fall in like with anyone.”

The Criteria: The no-load, equity funds on our list are in the top 40% of their Lipper categories over the trailing 10-year period and in the bottom 40% during the trailing three-year period. The funds are up at smallest amount 10% in 2009. We also added in some subjective criteria: The funds must have done well vs. the S&P 500 coming out of the last bear market and they must be run by companies or managers respected by advisors we talk to throughout the year. The funds are open to new money, require a minimum under $5,000 and charge an annual expense ratio under 1.5%.

Fund Type = *
Annualized 3-Year Return (%) = Show Only
Rank in Classification (%) (3 year performance) >=60
Annualized 10-Year Return (%) = Show Only
Rank in Classification (%) (10 year performance) <= 40
Expense Ratio <= 1.5%
Load Fund (type) = No Load
Minimum Initial Investment <= $5,000
Open to New Investors = Yes
Total Net Assets ($ millions) >= 50
Year-to-Date Return (%) >= 10
* Screen does not include fixed income offerings. The final list was generated by favoring funds with managers not compulsory by advisors throughout the course of the year. Performance during the last bear market was also considered.

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Since the S&P 500 index closed at a humble 676 on March 9 it has rebounded 30%. Within the index, financials and “consumer discretionary” companies — the latter sell things we want but don’t need, like toys and restaurant meals — have soared 83% and 37%, respectively. Both sectors suffered steep earnings declines over the past year. Both now trade well above 20 era forecast 2009 earnings, vs. 16 era earnings for the index. Investors seem to be counting on a quick return to the borrowing and spending that powers profits for both sectors.

Packaged food makers seem a safer bet — and a cheaper one. While the average S&P 500 company saw its sales shrink 8% last quarter vs. a year earlier, the index’s pantry companies increased sales as patrons ate more meals at home. There’s no earnings rebound needed to justify food stock ticker’s prices: They trade at a reasonable 14 era 2009 earnings and they offer hearty dividend yields. The average is 3.4%, about a percentage point more than the S&P 500 index provides.

Below are five S&P 500 food stock tickers that look especially promising.

J.M . Smucker (SJM), which makes its namesake jams, Pillsbury rolls and Hungry Jack pancake mix, bought Procter & Gamble’s (PG) Folgers coffee business last year. The buy has fueled giant sales increases of late, but even without it, sales would have increased 3% in the company’s most recent quarter. Profits beat Wall Street’s expectations in every quarter of the company’s fiscal 2009 finished April 30.

ConAgra Foods (CAG) owns an eclectic mix of businesses including Chef Boyardee canned pasta, Orville Redenbacher’s popcorn and Slim Jim meat . . . things. The company recently sold its commodity trading unit. Adjusted for the change, sales and profits are growing nicely. The stock ticker is the cheapest on the list at less than 12 era earnings and it comes with a 4.1% dividend yield.

H.J. Heinz (HNZ) sells plenty of ketchup to restaurants, so it’s not seeing quite the same benefit as other food companies from patrons intake at home. Also, some shoppers are trading down to store-brand ketchup. Sales in the company’s most recent quarter slid 6%. Management says it plans to trim costs and spend some of the savings on more marketing, while avoiding price cuts, in an effort to regain market share while keeping profits plump. If the plot works quickly, the stock ticker price will surely benefit, and if it doesn’t investors still collect the largest yield on the list: 4.7%.

Have a look if you like at details on these three and two more companies on the list below.

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U.S. shares are 27% cheaper than a year ago, even after climbing 15% in the second quarter. During the first half, though, the value of announced acquisitions in the U.S. fell 45% from a year earlier, according to data provider Dealogic. TrimTabs, an investment research group, calls the second quarter the most bearish it has seen since it started tracking data in 1995, in terms of companies’ zeal for selling new shares to the public and their reluctance to spend cash to buy either their shares or entire companies.

Investors should read that as a sign of stock ticker-market pessimism among company managers, which signals poor market income to come, according to TrimTabs. Perhaps that makes now a excellent time to raise cash, or at smallest amount trade pricey stock tickers for cheap ones. To the latter end, I’ve listed five companies below that corporate suitors force reckon are excellent deals aptly now, if they weren’t so reluctant to spend. Some of the traits that can make a company a potential takeover target can also make it a promising stock ticker. Chief among them is a modest price.

The companies have, in the parlance of merger and acquisition pros, low EV/Ebitda ratios. EV is enterprise value, which is what an shareholder would pay to buy a company in its entirety and repay all of its debt. Ebitda stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and paying back. It’s a rate of underlying profit potential that allows for tidy comparisons of companies. A low EV/Ebitda ratio, then, means a company had a modest takeover price relative to its earnings potential. The companies on my list also generate free cash, something acquiring firms like to see.

BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ) shares have climbed 31% over the past five years, vs. an 18% decline for the S&P 500. They now sell for 13 era forward earnings, vs. more than 16 era earnings for the index. Sales and profits for BJ’s are rising at the moment, as patrons forsake full-price shops for discount clubs. The company has low profit margins relative to peers like Costco (COST), but also increasing margins, which together suggest both improvement and room for more of it.

Dell (DELL) has suffered astute sales declines of late, but it has reduced corporate expenses and still produces impressive income on equity, the mark of an efficient company. In the absence of a comprehensive economic recovery, the chief appeal of the stock ticker for investors is a low price. Subtracting the company’s sizable cash balance from its stock ticker price, shares go for about 10 era forward earnings.

Listed below are details on these two companies and three others.

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That said, hundreds of companies pay at smallest amount 4% at the moment. That’s about double the average rate offered by banks on one-year certificates of deposit. Of course, CDs offer a promise of principal protection, but they come with some unwanted guarantees, too. They are cast iron not to increase in value beyond their interest payments. The payments themselves are cast iron not to grow during the life of the CD. If inflation picks up, long-term CDs are nearly cast iron to fall behind in their ability to protect investors’ buying power.

A 4% dividend yield, by contrast, can grow over time, offers the potential of capital gains on the side and can help protect against inflation. Of course, all of this depends on the company paying the dividend, and its prospects for prosperity in coming years. Below are five financially strong companies paying more than 4%. Each has a modest valuation and relatively stable sales.

Philip Morris International (PM) sells Marlboro and other top cigarette brands in 160 countries further than the U.S. The stock ticker is more expensive than its domestic sibling, Altria (MO), at 14 era forward earnings versus 9. The International company also comes with a smaller dividend: 5.1%, compared with 7.8% for the American company. But those numbers still compare favorably with the broad stock ticker market, and Philip Morris International has limited exposure to lawsuits and better growth prospects than the U.S. tobacco industry.

ConocoPhilips (COP) stock ticker trades at less than half its price of a year ago, when Warren Buffett was loading up on shares for his investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B). It’s by no means the top performer in the oil and gas industry. Analysts expect the company’s production to flatten for the next few years after an increase of 3% or so this year. To help make up for its weak production outlook, Conoco has been an aggressive acquirer. As a result its debt since 2005 has increased from 19% of capital to 34%. That’s a manageable sum, but it reduces the part of the company’s cash flow that’s free to be place toward new drilling. All that said, Conoco sells for less than 13 era this year’s miserable earnings forecast and less than 7 era what Wall Street figures the company force earn next year. Relative to the company’s profits, its 4.5% dividend yield looks plenty affordable.

Will Verizon (VZ) get the iPhone next year, once Apple’s exclusivity pact with AT&T (T) runs out? There’s a excellent chance, judging by Apple’s recent announcement that long-awaited data facial appearance for its iPhone are now available through most carriers world-wide, but won’t be available until later this year through AT&T. The real reason to like Verizon isn’t just that it provides the smallest amount-terrible cellphone service of a sloppy bunch, but that its stock ticker comes with one of the largest, affordable dividend yields around: nearly 6%. Sales are expected to increase 11% this year, as its flourishing wireless business more than makes up for withering landline accounts.

Have a look if you like at details on these and the other two high-yielders below.

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Organic growth is different. When a company’s sales surge, not because of a merger, but because of heated demand for its products and air force, its stock ticker price can march privileged. Whether it does depends on how expensive the stock ticker is to start, and whether the growth is quicker or slower than investors are counting on. Rosetta Stone (RST), which makes language course software, reported May 11 after the market’s close that first-quarter sales had shot 41% privileged than a year earlier. But investors clearly wanted more: Over the next two days, the stock ticker lost 25%.

In their most recent quarters, Netflix (NFLX), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) and SalesForce.com (CRM) grew sales by 21%, 60% and 23%, respectively. But you’ll pay dearly for a cut of that growth. Shares of the show-rental outfit sell for 26 era this year’s earnings forecast, the office coffee specialist is 61 era earnings and the business-software firm is 69 era earnings. The broad market, for comparison, is 17 era forecast 2009 earnings.

I recently went hunting for companies producing quick, organic sales growth, and which also have reasonable price/earnings ratios.

Fluor (FLR) builds oil refineries, power plants and other complex structures. With financing tight, project cancellations earlier this year, including a $2.1 billion Kuwait refinery, rattled investors, but shares have now rallied 47% in three months. On May 11 the company announced first-quarter sales increased 21% and earnings jumped 50%. New project awards were about as strong as a year ago. Shares still seem reasonable priced at 14 era earnings. The company enjoys a giant cash surplus but pays only a meager dividend, yielding less than 1%.

Unemployment hurts plenty of businesses, but not for-profit schools, which suddenly find themselves with a rush of jobless applicants. The distress is, the trend isn’t lost on investors, and the likes of DeVry (DV) and Strayer (STRA) go for 20 and 28 era earnings, respectively. ITT Educational Air force (ESI), which operates more than 100 technical schools in 37 states, sells for 13 era earnings and is growing fiercely. In its first quarter, student enrollment increased 37%, sales swelled 23% and earnings rose 47%.

Irrevocably, Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) managed to produce a saucy 35% sales gain in its first quarter, including a 6.4% improvement at longstanding stores. The latter figure would have been 2.5 percentage points privileged if not for a shift of Easter into April this year, management figures. Shares are nearly 20 era earnings, which is a bit pricier than what I set out to find. But if Wall Street’s growth projections are to be believed, the stock ticker force be worth paying up for. Earnings are expected to climb 24% this year and 22% next year.

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Recently, though, we’ve seen some fund managers dust themselves off and get on the comeback trail. These funds were in the basement of their peer groups during 2008, but now find themselves leading the pack over the trailing three-month period. That’s not exactly enough time to proclaim a complete turnaround — but the gains are large enough that investors are starting to take notice.

This week we searched for equity funds that were in the bottom 25% of their Morningstar categories during 2008. Then we looked to see which of those funds were in the top 25% of those same groups in 2009. We also added in fee criteria and favored funds whose parent companies have excellent reputations and whose managers have a history of posting decent performance. Below are seven funds we reckon are back on the aptly track.

Fund managers may take issue with us proclaiming they’re in turnaround mode. After all, one year or three months doesn’t make or break a fund. Indeed, intelligence have shown that every fund manager who outperforms certainly lags his or her benchmark at some point, too. That said, it does pay to see how funds manage in era of crisis and, more importantly, it’s also smart to see how their managers steered them out of the situation.

If you take a quick look at the table you will see that these funds are easily beating the broad market. There is a simple, partial explanation for that rise. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained more than 1,900 points since bottoming out at 6440 during trading on March 9. According to Lipper, the fund-data tracking company, over the last three months through Thursday, every broad-focused equity fund category is outpacing the average S&P 500 index fund’s 7.5% gain. Excellent stock ticker picking could account for some of that performance. But also keep in mind that the 30% run-up in the broad market has essentially lifted all boats.

The huge question is whether this run is sustainable. The increase in stock tickers was spurred by a number of factors: A spotty earnings season that was poor but not as terrible as originally expected; the release of bank stress test results that showed none of the country’s huge institutions would fail (although some needed to raise more cash); and economic data that seemed to shift from positive to unenthusiastic depending on the day of the week. All that added up to a perfect background for speculators — not exactly a fantastic foundation to build on.

“We are more bullish than we were at the end of the year,” says Paul Ahern, senior vice president at Wealth Trust-Arizona. But, he adds, “we fully expect some profit taking heading into the summer.”

That risk led us to add another layer to our screen. To truly determine if a fund can pull off a dramatic turnaround, it helps to see how it did coming out of other downturns. So we also went back to the 2002 bear market to see how funds did during the following year. The offerings on the table below all outpaced the broad market during 2003.

The Hodges fund (HDPMX) lost 49.5% last year vs. roughly a 37% drop for the S&P 500. Though, during the trailing three-month period it’s up 12.4%, nearly four percentage points ahead of that same benchmark. The fund performed in a similar manner during the previous bear market: In 2002 it lost 26.3% but then came roaring back with an 80% gain during 2003. Don and Craig Hodges, the father-and-son team that runs the fund, use a simple rule in these situations: Buy what was strong going into the initial downturn because those stock tickers will soar sooner when things improve. The duo is also pairing holdings in the fund in order to concentrate on their best thoughts. They’ve done well recently with stock tickers like Transocean (RIG), Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and Gamestop (GME).

The Criteria: The equity funds on our table were in the bottom 25% of their Lipper peer groups during 2008, but in the top 25% of those same categories so far in 2009. They are open to new money, require a minimum investment under $5,000 and charge an annual expense ratio under 1.5%. We also favored funds whose parent companies have excellent reputations with financial advisers and whose managers have proven track records. We did not include load funds.

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Value investors, as people who favor such inexpensive shares are called, justifiably expected them to lead the market in 2009. Incredibly, they’ve continued to lag well behind — until just the past few weeks. So are value stock irrevocably ready to soar?

Let’s first define the terms. “Growth” and “value” are wishy-washy descriptors, since all companies are meant to grow, and since just about any stock ticker that will be worth more tomorrow is something of a value today. I prefer the terms “well loved” and “unpopular.” Generally speaking, growth stocks are well loved. They fetch prices equal to many era their current profits or asset values, on the assumption that their profits or asset values will grow quickly in coming years. Value stock are less well loved. They trade at lower multiples of their profits and asset values because they’re not expected to grow as quickly.

There are no firm numeric cutoffs.  Stock exist in a spectrum linking growth and value, not on either side of a fence. Hence, mutual funds and stock tickers indexes labeled as growth and value often hold or track the same stock . To get a clear read on how the two styles are performing, focus on benchmarks that have no overlap, like the S&P Pure Growth and Pure Value indexes. Last year, Pure Value lost 48%, while Pure Growth lost 39%. This year through April, Pure Value lost just under a percent, while Pure Growth gained 10%.

That’s not normal. In past market downturns — from December 1980 to July 1982, from September 1987 to November 1987, from September 2000 to September 2002 — value stock  outperformed. They trade with less popularity, after all, so they have less of it to lose when stock as a class lose luster. But value stock are often cheap because of company flaws that, while perfectly manageable in a normal market downturn, can turn disastrous in a comprehensive financial flush like the one that started in earnest last fall. Investors during the worst bits of the past year stopped asking about the return on their money and started asking whether they will ever see a return of their money, reckons Robert Arnott, whose firm, Research Affiliates, manages indexes that skew toward value stock

A close look at the numbers suggests value stocsk force have recently broken free of the abuse. While they’ve trailed year-to-date, the hurt happened early when the market was falling. Through May 9, the S&P 500 index dropped 25%. Pure Growth lost only 20%, while Pure Value plunged 44%. In April, when stock rose, just the opposite: Pure Growth gained 15%, while Pure Value soared 32%.

Below are listed a handful of members of the S&P 500 Pure Value index that still seem attractively priced.

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