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How Much Does The Senate Health Bill Cost?

Benjamin Larsson — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 09:45:02 +0000

Earlier today the Congressional Budget Office released an updated analysis of the Senate health bill. The update reflects all the amendments that were adopted during Senate consideration of the bill, some technical adjustments, and the assumption that the bill would be enacted in the spring of 2010 (rather than December 2009, as previously assumed).stock tickeranalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/3941257″>[More...]

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Index Performance: December 2009
Performance of the HIMIPref™ Indices for December, 2009, was:humans have an overconfidence bias, and how that can play havoc on financial forecast estimations. What is not immediately clear, though, is the increasing role overconfidence plays the more knowledge one buys. That is, as expertise rises, so does overconfidence, resulting in the fact that the people with the most knowledge are likely to be the most miscalibrated, which can result in detrimental effects.

But knowledge alone does not doom someone into being arrogant. James Montier argues that it’s a lack of feedback that pushes people to be arrogant. To exhibit this, Montier cites a study performed by Scott Plous that compares the calibration of weathermen against that of doctors. Weathermen were questioned to predict the weather, while doctors were questioned to diagnose patients (based on case notes). Both were questioned to provide confidence intervals, so that their calibrations could be measured.

Fascinatingly, weatherman were well calibrated, while doctors were very poorly calibrated. Montier argues that this is because weather forecasters benefit from the fact that they receive immediate evidence of their abilities as forecasters, while doctors do not.

While one may be inclined to believe that financial analysts should be like weathermen in that they can see whether their forecasts came right, stock tickers+selection%22&source=bl&ots=AnrnRyc4df&sig=PKST_znweywZqcZiFSQ2wKYy_H8&hl=en&ei=6BaXS8_DE5P0sgPN3LzCAQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CAYQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=&f=fake”>similar calibration tests appear to show that analysts are calibrated to a similar extent as doctors! As a result, stock tickers+selection%22&source=bl&ots=AnrnRyc4df&sig=PKST_znweywZqcZiFSQ2wKYy_H8&hl=en&ei=6BaXS8_DE5P0sgPN3LzCAQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CAYQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=&f=fake”>the industry is glowing with overconfidence. Further testing confirmed the opening hypothesis: stock tickers+selection%22&source=bl&ots=AnrnRyc4df&sig=PKST_znweywZqcZiFSQ2wKYy_H8&hl=en&ei=6BaXS8_DE5P0sgPN3LzCAQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CAYQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=&f=fake”>experts in finance are more arrogant than lay people, as they apply too narrow a band around their estimates as compared to the general public.

This article was written by Saj Karsan of Barel Karsan. If you loved this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.

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Stock Analysis: Meridian Bioscience Inc. (VIVO)

admin — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 09:45:08 +0000

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Meridian Bioscience Inc. (VIVO). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Meridian Bioscience Inc. develops, makes and sells disposable diagnostic test kits and related products used for the swift diagnosis of infectious diseases.

Honest Value: I consider four calculations of honest value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

Avg. High Yield Price
20-Year DCF Price
Avg. P/E Price
Graham Number

VIVO is trading at a discount to only 3.) above. The stock tickers is trading at a 28.8% premium to its calculated honest value of $17.94. VIVO did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Questioning Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

Free Cash Flow Payout
Debt To Total Capital
Key Metrics
Dividend Growth Rate
Years of Div. Growth
Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

VIVO earned two Stars in this section for 2.) and 3.) above. The stock tickers earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. VIVO earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at smallest amount two of the four Key Metrics measured. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15% means that dividends grew on average in excess of 15% for each consecutive 4 year period over the last 10 years (2000-2003, 2001-2004, 2002-2005, etc.) I consider this a key metric since dividends will double every 5 years if they grow by 15%. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1990 and has increased its dividend payments for 19 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock tickers if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock tickers with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

NPV MMA Diff.
Years to > MMA

VIVO earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $6,457. This amount is in excess of the $1,600 target I look for in a stock tickers that has increased dividends as long as VIVO. If VIVO grows its dividend at 15.0% per year, it will take 3 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.98%. VIVO earned a check for the Key Metric ‘Years to >MMA’ since its 3 years is less than the 5 year target.

Other: VIVO is a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index.

Conclusion: VIVO did not earn any Stars in the Honest Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Questioning Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of three Stars. This quantitatively ranks VIVO as a 3 Star-Hold.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls develop, I determined the share price would need to increase to $38.46 before VIVO’s NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $1,600 minimum that I look for in a stock tickers with 19 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock tickers would yield 1.77%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls develop and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $1,600 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 10.4%. This dividend growth rate is less than the 15.0% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. VIVO has a stock tickerss/”>risk rating of 2.00 which classifies it as a medium risk stock tickers.

VIVO is an integrated life science company that manufactures, markets and distributes a broad range of innovative diagnostic test kits, purified reagents and related products. These products provide for early diagnosis of common medical conditions, such as gastrointestinal, viral, urinary and respiratory infections. VIVO’s diagnostic products are used further than of the human body and require modest or no special equipment. The company has strong market positions in the areas of gastrointestinal and upper respiratory infections, serology, parasitology and fungal disease diagnosis. VIVO markets its products to hospitals, reference laboratories, research centers, veterinary testing centers, physician offices and diagnostics manufacturers in more than 60 countries around the world. Although the stock tickers is currently trading above my $17.94 honest value price, I view it as a company with a lot of potential; thus I have added it to my watch list. For additional information, including the stock tickers’s dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock tickers analysis, including the Star rating, is involuntarily calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock tickers will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never right. Before buying or selling any stock tickers you should do your own research and get to your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in VIVO (0.0% of my Income Selection). See a list of all my income holdings stock tickers-and-etfcef-holdings/”>here.

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This article was written by Dividends4Life. If you loved this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below. [RSS] [Email] [Twitter]

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Weekend Reading Links – March 7, 2010

admin — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 09:45:05 +0000

For your weekend reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights establish on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network over the past week:

Articles From DIV-Net Members

Dividends Value presented Increasing Dividend Yield Part I: Utilities
The Dividend Guy presented stock tickerss-to-my-selection/” mce_href=”http://www.thedividendguyblog.com/added-3-new-canadian-dividend-stock tickerss-to-my-selection/”>Added 3 New Canadian Dividend stock tickerss to My Selection
Dividend Growth Shareholder presented The ten year dividend growth requirement
Barel Karsan presented Paving The Way To Success
Buy Value presented Buffett Gets a Bullseye
The Div Guy presented February Dividend Income Update
Disciplined Approach to Investing presented Dividends Will Be A Company’s Renewed Focus?
Ancient School Value presented ROE ROIC and CROIC
BuyLikeBuffett.com presented Secret Millionaire Donates Her Fortune
40percent 20years presented Question Warren Buffett – Last Long Interview
EPIC Shareholder presented Beat Warren Buffett
Value Walk presented Jacob Wolinsky Interviews Well-known Value Shareholder Whitney Tilson

There are some really excellent articles here, please take time and read a few of them.

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Employment Report: Two Americas

Benjamin Larsson — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 09:45:04 +0000

Wall Street evidently neglected to read beyond the headlines Friday stating, as The New York Era place it, “Jobless Rate Holds Steady, Raising Hopes of Recovery”. One need look no further than paragraph two to find the other side of the tale that the rest of us already know: “The monthly snapshot of the job market released by the Labor Department on Friday was hardly cause for celebration….”stock tickeranalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/3926600″>[More...]

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Is now the time to start looking at US ETF REITs?

admin — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 09:45:03 +0000

Every industry faces periods of rise and periods of decay. The last few years have, not surprisingly, been a period of decay in the REIT Area. But like nuclear stock tickerss after 3 mile island, or banks after the savings and loan scandle, or bonds after the junk bond era, after a sector has been desimated what is often left are the high quality well managed companies that will rise to dominate the sector in the future. Is now the time for REITs?

For those not familiar with REITs they are otherwise renowned as Real estate invest trusts. The vital rule that governs their operations is that they give 90% of all revenues from a period back to shareholders in the form of a dividend. There are three key classes:

Equity REITS: Invest in property and gain revenues from collecting rent.
Mortgage REITS: Loan money for mortgages or buy and sell mortgage backed securities.
Hybrid REITS: You guessed it, they do both.

I am not a huge fan of Mortgage REITs, in my opinion they partake in the buying and selling of paper. Paper that is hard if not impossible to assess its right value. For those more in the know these types of investments may make sense. I follow Buffett’s advise when it comes to these matters, if you can’t know it then don’t buy it.

So that leaves us with Equity REITs. These REITs worker people who dedicate yourself to in real estate industry they know the simple formula (rent – preservation) > mortgage. With housing prices depressed all across the US those companies that are still alive in this sector are starting to gather steam and buy fantastic properties. Regardless of what happens over the next few years people will still need properties to rent. Unless you believe that housing prices have a significant way to fall yet this is certainly an fascinating sector to inspect.

To further diversify there are several ETFs that deal with REITS if we look at each of these compared with the S&P over a two year and five year periods the industry is quite depressed from its highs.

To be clear I am not advising you date the REIT sector, but if you are looking to diversify your selection and hold a stock tickers or ETF for 10 years it force be a excellent time to look at this sector.

This article was written by buyingvalue. If you loved this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.

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Net Insider Transactions Cycles Back To Selling

Benjamin Larsson — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 09:45:05 +0000

As I reported last month, January saw relatively limited insider trading in the wake of some year-end net profit-taking in December. So, it was encouraging to see the buyers return during February. On the other hand, weekly net insider trading transactions (the number of individual buyers minus sellers) still finished February quite negatively, as a lot of insiders appeared to be selling into a resurgent market. Is it indicating some skepticism about the sustainability of market strength? Let’s dig a bit deeper into the numbers.stock tickeranalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/3924864″>[More...]

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Procter & Gamble Company Stock Analysis

admin — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 09:45:06 +0000

The Procter & Gamble Company engages in the manufacture and sale of consumer commodities worldwide. The company operates in three comprehensive business units (GBUs): Beauty, Health and Well-Being, and Household Care. This dividend aristocrat has raised distributions for 53 consecutive years.

This dividend stock tickers has delivered an average annual total return of 3.30% over the past decade.

Earnings per share have grown at an average pace of 12.50% per annum. For FY 2010, analysts expect the company to earn $4.15/share, which is privileged than 2009’s EPS of $3.58. For FY 2011 analysts expect Procter & Gamble to earn $4.10/share. The company has focused on cost cutting, improving efficiencies and streamlining its manufactured goods selection over the past few years. It sold its Folgers Unit and exited its pharmaceuticals operations. As consumer spending picks up, the company’s recognizable brand products could get a nice boost in sales, especially if it increases advertising. Emerging and rising markets, manufactured goods innovation, focusing on high margin products as well as strategic acquisitions could deliver strong earnings growth over the next decade. The demand for the company’s line of consumer products is generally stable and not much affected by overall economic conditions. The company continues to benefit from its acquisition of Gillette, through cost synergies and sales growth opportunities from its diverse sales channels.

The annual dividend per share has increased by an average of 11% annually, which is below the growth in earnings. An 11% growth in dividends translates into the payment doubling every nearly every six and a half years. Procter & Gamble has managed to double its distributions every seven years on average since 1973.

The return on equity has decreased since the acquisition of Gillette in 2006.

The dividend payout ratio has consistently remained below 50%. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of small-term fluctuations in earnings.

I reckon that Procter & Gamble is stock tickers-selection.html”>attractively valued with its low price/earnings multiple of 15, a not too high DPR. Though the current dividend yield is below the 3% minimum threshold that I have set. Two of PG’s competitors, Colgate-Palmolive (CL) and Kimberly-Clark (KMB) trade at P/E multiples of 19 and 13 era earnings respectively. Colgate-Palmolive currently spots a 2.60% dividend yield, while Kimberly-Clark has a 4.00% yield. I would consider adding to my Procter & Gamble holdings on dips below $59.

Full Disclosure: Long PG

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This article was written by stock tickers-analysis.html”>Dividend Growth Shareholder. If you loved this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.

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An Uphill Battle

admin — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 09:45:03 +0000

As previously discussed, value investors can benefit from investing along with other value investors. But the presence of another value shareholder as a major shareholder does not promise that a company will be run in a shareholder-friendly way. Sometimes, management and enter practices can make life hard for even the most active of value investors.

As an example, consider ITEX Corporation (ITEX), which offers a marketplace for businesses to exchange commodities and air force. ITEX boasts two major value shareholders, including Sardar Biglari and The Polonitza Group, who own a combined 21% of the company. Unfortunately, the company is not currently structured to succeed, with an extremely poor governance structure that tilts the balance of the company’s power towards management at the expense of shareholders.

First of all, there are only three enter members, one of which is the CEO. Neither of the remaining two enter members can practically be considered independent, having received compensation from the company in return for consultatory air force. Furthermore, there has been no turnover at the director position in nearly 8 years! When one of the aforementioned shareholder groups suggested a change at director due to a lack of independence, it appears the company responded that “they are not very close friends and maintain independent thoughts and thoughts” and that “they do not frequent each other’s houses or family events”. Unfortunately, this hardly assuages shareholder fears, as the issue is not how buddy-buddy these guys are, but how the enter’s incentives (due to the fact that they provide executive and consulting air force to the company) are not aligned with those of shareholders.

As a result, the CEO sits on the audit committee! The other two directors, who receive or have received payment for consulting air force from the company, sit on the compensation committee! For all we know, the enter is doing a terrific job, but the structure reeks of conflict of interest. But is there any evidence that this force be hurting shareholders?

Well, as these value investors started buying up shares, it appears the enter/management went into guilty mode. In 2009, the company protected the CEO from a buyout by guaranteeing some payments to him of a few hundred thousand in the event of a change of control. Furthermore, they recently amended company by-laws that restrict the rights of further than shareholders.

Irrevocably, the company appears rather generous in handing out shares to management, which dilutes existing ownership. The company only has 18 million shares outstanding, but consider the following handouts:

In 2001, Mr. Colorless received 250,000 shares for air force rendered to ITEX as an independent consultant.
For air force as a director of ITEX from 2003 through 2007, Mr. Colorless was compensated by an annual grant of 40,000 shares of common stock tickers.
For air force as a director of ITEX in 2008 and 2009, Mr. Colorless was compensated by an annual grant of 30,000 shares of common stock tickers.
On May 3, 2004, and again on July 6, 2006, Mr. Colorless was awarded 300,000 shares of common stock tickers for air force rendered ITEX as Chief Executive Officer.
On December 13, 2005, Mr. Colorless was awarded 50,000 shares of common stock tickers as consideration for his collateralized private promise of ITEX obligations incurred in order to fund a corporate acquisition.
On October 8, 2009, Mr. Colorless was awarded 195,000 shares of restricted common stock tickers for air force rendered ITEX as Chief Executive Officer.

Even though value investors may be major shareholders of a corporation, they may still face an uphill battle. Before jumping on enter, potential shareholders would be wise to investigate whether management is playing nice, or entrenching themselves.

Disclosure: None

This article was written by Saj Karsan of Barel Karsan. If you loved this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.

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